Tribune poll: Brady leads Quinn 43-39,

Republican challenger Bill Brady has grabbed a slim edge over Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn by solidifying support among independent and suburban voters as the nasty campaign draws to a close, a new Tribune/WGN poll shows.

Brady had 43 percent to Quinn's 39 percent, a tenuous advantage given the survey's error margin of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Still, the findings showed many trends breaking Brady's way as the candidates continue to campaign with only a week until Election Day.

The state senator from Bloomington gained while the governor showed little movement since the last Tribune poll about four weeks ago. The earlier survey found the two essentially deadlocked, with Quinn at 39 percent, Brady at 38 percent.

Brady did better in the Republican-leaning collar counties, his support rising by 11 percentage points from last time. Quinn's collar-county support fell 8 percentage points during the same time frame.

Among independent voters, Brady's backing improved 10 percentage points in the new survey while Quinn's support remained about the same.

Much of Brady's advance may be due to a heavy dose of negative TV advertising against Quinn, largely funded through donations by the Republican Governors Association. Quinn has also aired his share of attack ads at Brady, but is outmatched in the money game.

The poll indicates a sizable chunk of voters — nearly one in three — still have no opinion of Brady despite a year of campaigning for the state's highest office. That Brady now has a slight lead in the poll indicates a willingness among many voters to seek change during a time of economic uncertainty and go with an unfamiliar candidate rather than a better-known commodity like Quinn.

Fully 41 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Quinn, the former lieutenant governor who took over the state's top job 21 months ago after the arrest, impeachment and removal of Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Only 34 percent had a favorable impression of Quinn, long a mainstay in Illinois politics, though largely in an outsider role. Both figures are largely unchanged from a month ago.

At the same time, Brady is now viewed favorably by 34 percent of Illinois voters, up from 30 percent in the last poll. Thirty percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of the conservative veteran state lawmaker, about the same as a month ago.

The apparent desire for change is bolstered by the results of independent voters, whose support is crucial for a Republican candidate in a Democratic state like Illinois.

Brady led Quinn 47 percent to 28 percent among independents. Those crucial swing voters also viewed Brady as the better candidate to solve the state's financial problems, favoring the Republican 44 percent to 24 percent over Quinn.

Overall, 42 percent of voters statewide thought Brady's message of unspecified budget cuts, tax breaks for businesses and opposition to an income tax increase will better resolve the state's budget woes, including 81 percent of voters who consider themselves Republicans. Only one-third of voters support Quinn's plans, which include a state income tax increase geared toward education funding, including just 63 percent of voters who consider themselves Democrats.

Indeed, Brady now has the support of 85 percent of voters who call themselves Republican, up from 79 percent four weeks ago. Quinn's support among self-identified Democrats has increased from 71 percent to 75 percent during the same time period.

Geographically, Brady broke an earlier deadlock in the collar counties and led Quinn 50 percent to 33 percent. Downstate, Brady led Quinn by nearly 2-to-1. In heavily Democratic Chicago, Quinn's support remained stagnant since the last poll at 59 percent.

After the polling concluded Friday, the governor's contest took a twist over the weekend. Democratic state Sen. Rickey Hendon called Brady "idiotic, racist, sexist (and) homophobic" at a West Side rally while introducing Quinn. The governor hugged Hendon before taking the lectern, but later disavowed Hendon's remarks while hammering Brady on his conservative views on abortion, gay rights and the minimum wage.

The poll shows what may lie behind Quinn's strategy: For a Democrat, he's weak among African-American voters, and he's not very strong among female voters, including suburban women who tend to be socially moderate.

Slightly more than half of black voters viewed Quinn favorably, just two-thirds supported him and more than a quarter are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. Among women statewide, Quinn has a narrow 43 percent to 38 percent advantage over Brady. Among white suburban women, the two men are statistically even at about 40 percent support.

Overall, Brady and Quinn are viewed about equally when voters were asked which candidate was more honest and trustworthy. While 77 percent of Republicans trusted their nominee more than Quinn, only 66 percent of Democrats trusted their candidate more than Brady.

The poll, conducted Oct. 18 through Friday, found independent candidate Scott Lee Cohen at 5 percent support. Cohen, who won the Democratic lieutenant governor primary before dropping out amid damaging personal disclosures, has spent about $5.8 million of his own money since entering politics last year. That's a bit more than $1 million for every percentage point of support he's garnered in the governor's race.

Green Party candidate Rich Whitney had 4 percent, and Libertarian candidate Lex Green had 2 percent, the poll showed. Another 6 percent remained undecided.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/elections/ct-met-illinois-governor-race-1026-20101025,0,701182.story