Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

By NEIL KING JR. And PETER WALLSTEN

Republican challengers are suddenly threatening once-safe Democrats in New England and the Northwest, expanding the terrain for potential GOP gains and raising the party's hopes for a significant victory in next month's elections.Republican advances in traditionally Democratic states, including Connecticut, Oregon and Washington, may not translate into a wave of GOP victories. But they have rattled local campaigns and forced the Democrats to shift attention and money to races they didn't expect to be defending.

Rising sentiment against the party in power has washed ashore even in coastal Oregon, where Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio won his 10th re-election two years ago with 82% of the vote.

"I am having the same problem that Democrats are having across the country, which is ennui," he said, noting that his opponent's yard signs "are thick" across much of the district. Mr. DeFazio said he is facing the fight of his political life.
House Republican leaders in recent weeks have tamped down expectations, noting that Democrats still have significant financial resources and could prove resilient down the stretch. There is plenty of time for voter sentiment to shift, with three weeks before Election Day.

The expanded battlefield map, however, has prompted a shift in tone. Oregon Rep. Greg Walden, vice chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee, bluntly predicted his party is heading toward a big win. "The Democrats are standing on a beach with the water going out and there is a tsunami coming their way," he said.

Some Democrats are signaling the potential for a rout, particularly in the House. A new survey by Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg gives Republicans a six-point edge, 49% to 43%, when likely voters are asked which party they support in House races. That's a margin pollsters generally believe foreshadows large gains. "If the election were held today, it would produce a very unhappy night" for the Democrats, he said.

Mr. Greenberg said the gap is narrowing as the party base becomes more engaged and voters start paying attention to candidates and their television ads. But it must close quickly, he said, for Democrats to be in contention to save their House majority. "I do find movement," with the numbers narrowing a bit, Mr. Greenberg said.
Democrats are buying advertising in places they hadn't previously reserved it, a strong indication the battlefield is expanding. That includes New England, which hasn't a single Republican House member. A new ad by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began airing this week in the Massachusetts district covering Cape Cod, where Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt is retiring and ex-police sergeant Jeff Perry is posting a strong GOP challenge.

In Connecticut, polls published this week show Democratic Reps. Chris Murphy and Jim Himes in dead heats with their GOP rivals. The non-partisan Cook Political Report on Friday moved Mr. Murphy's race into a more competitive category, from a "likely" win to "lean" Democratic.

"It's obviously a sign of the times that these are competitive races," said Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen from Maryland, chairman of the House Democrats' campaign committee.

Mr. Van Hollen said many of these contested districts would be swing races most years. Mr. Murphy and Mr. Himes beat GOP incumbents in 2006 and 2008, respectively.

"These have never been slam-dunk Democratic districts, and in this political environment you take nothing for granted," he said.

Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to take control of the House. The party could also lose as many as four House seats they now hold. Republicans have fainter hopes of gaining the 10 seats needed to take the Senate.
Nonpartisan handicappers say the GOP appears all but certain to gain about 30 House seats, largely from conservative or depressed districts in the South, Northeast and industrial Midwest. Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York look particularly vulnerable.

Now, pollsters and analysts say the pressure building in liberal corners of the country points to the potential for a so-called wave election, similar to the drubbing Democrats took in 1994. That could deliver a huge turnover in the House.

Democratic voters remain less interested in the race, a big factor behind the party's woes. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found 66% of Republicans reporting intense interest, versus 52% of Democrats.

"What we know in a wave election is, the losing side is discouraged and fails to show up at the polling places," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, co-director of the Journal poll. In recent weeks, "the crest appears to be going higher and higher with few signs that it will abate."

GOP strategists said the party's focus this year on fiscal issues rather than social wedges such as abortion and gay marriage has helped give centrists comfort in backing Republicans.

In Connecticut, a new survey by the Democratic firm Merriman River Group found Mr. Himes in a statistical tie with his GOP challenger, state Sen. Dan Debicella. The race has turned nasty in recent days on television and in direct mail pieces. One flier from the state Democratic Party features a picture of Mr. Debicella with the words "Reckless Radical" scrawled across his face. Mr. Debicella describes himself as a moderate who supports abortion rights.

"This race is a toss-up, and I think it's going to be seats like this that determine if Republicans will pick up 30 seats or 60 seats," Mr. Debicella said.

In the Northwest, freshman Oregon Rep. Kurt Schrader is in a tight race with state Rep. Scott Bruun. To the north, in a district that includes Portland suburbs, six-term Democratic Rep. David Wu is under pressure from GOP sports consultant Rob Cornilles.

Washington State GOP Senate challenger Dino Rossi has pulled even or ahead of Democratic Sen. Patty Murray. Some Republicans view Washington state as a potential breaking point in the battle for control of the Senate.

Many Democrats are stunned that Mr. DeFazio has a race on his hands in a district that includes the liberal bastion of Eugene. Mr. DeFazio, facing a political newcomer, biochemist Art Robinson, says he isn't surprised.

It "is certainly not a district to be taken for granted," he says, "especially not in an election year like this."

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