How do race, ethnic numbers stack up in mayoral election?

Posted by Greg H. at 11/23/2010 11:25 AM CST on Chicago Business

Much as Chicago has chilled out when it comes to race since the Harold Washington days, no one in their right mind would suggest that race and ethnicity mean nothing in this city.

After all, any politician begins by tapping support in his or her home community. If that candidate has a big base and it's united, that candidate is well on his or her way to winning.

That's why I was fascinated to look at a detailed analysis of how Chicago's vote breaks down by region, race and ethnicity, and how it's changed.

The analysis — which came from a mayoral campaign I can't name — indicates that there's been remarkably little change in who votes here since the late Mayor Washington's 1983 race.

Specifically, the study suggests that African-Americans make up an average of about 42% of the total city vote, varying no more than three or four points from that figure in any major election since. Similarly the white vote averages about 40%, down just a bit, and the Hispanic vote 18%, a statistically minor increase.

By region, the Near North, Near South and South Sides have gained marketshare just a bit, less than 1%, and the Northwest Side is off a tad.

The figures underline the reality of why the black candidates for mayor think they have a real shot to succeed Richard M. Daley. Blacks still represent the city's single-largest voting bloc.

But the real picture may be more complex than that.

I ran the above figures by one of Mr. Daley's political number-crunchers, and that source said the figures sound about right. But an overall analysis misses some important nuances, that source said.

For instance, Chicago's black population likely is older, includes fewer families and is more conservative — all a function of lower-income African-Americans being priced out of town, or moved out by the demolition of public housing units, that source said. In other words, the total black population may be smaller than it was, but a greater share of it is old enough and interested enough to vote.

Similarly, the white population base increasingly has moved from the ethnic Northwest and Southwest Sides to wealthier, more liberal, more diverse enclaves on the lakefront — neighborhoods that have begun to draw a growing Asian population.

The conclusion of that source: The winning candidate will be the one who puts together a coalition from a variety of groups, a coalition that will be different from Mr. Washington's combination of blacks and some lakefront whites and Hispanics.

A third source, mayoral candidate Gery Chico, says the 42/40/18 numbers above "sound about right. The question is, where are those folks going to go?"

Today's Hispanic vote is "more mature" and voters in every part of town "have less willingness to vote on the basis of race," he says.

No one knows for sure how any of this will play out in February. But it should be fascinating to watch.

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One mayoral P.S.: Former Chicago Public Schools chief Paul Vallas is in town today, and he made formal his endorsement of Mr. Chico, who was president of the Board of Education when Mr. Vallas was schools superintendent.

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