U.S. SENATE BATTLEGROUND SURVEY CONDUCTED

Methodology
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a survey in 13 states with competitive U.S. Senate races (as
defined by The Cook Report). The survey was conducted among 1,300 likely voters on August 2-5, 2010. The survey has a margin of error of +2.72% in 95 out of 100 cases. The states surveyed were Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri,
New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington.
The survey questionnaire was nearly identical to the one used by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research (GQR) for the June NPR survey of House Battleground districts. Neither GQR nor NPR was involved at all in this poll. A few demographic and ballot
intensity questions were cut from this survey, as was one issue question asking favor/oppose a bill “Congress is considering that would create new rules for banks and other financial institutions.”
Key Findings

1. The Battleground Senate states do not look good for the Democrats.
The Republican candidate leads on the ballot 47%-39% across the 13 Battleground
Senate states. The lead is 45%-37% in the Republican-held states (Florida, Kentucky,
Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio), and 47%-40% in Democratic-held states
(Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and
Washington). U.S. Senate Battleground Survey

This is not the same as a generic ballot. We tested the specific candidates by name and party in every state but Colorado (where there are no clear primary frontrunners) in which case we tested “Republican” versus “Democratic” candidate. In Florida, we included Charlie Crist as a no party affiliation candidate.

Key findings in the crosstabs include:

* Independents are voting Republican by 47%-25% across the Battleground states.

* In the four states John McCain won in 2008, the GOPer leads 46%-36%. In the nine states Barack Obama won, the GOPer still leads 47%-40%, including 50%-38% in the five states Obama won with less than 55%, and 43%-42% in the fourObama 55%+ states.

* There is a 21 point gender gap. Men are voting GOP 52%-33%, while women
split 42% GOP/44% Dem.

* As seen nearly everywhere else, the Democratic candidates face a wide
enthusiasm gap. The GOPer leads 52%-36% among high interest voters (rating
their interest as 8-10 on a 1-10 scale, which is 74% of the sample).

2. The political environment in these 13 Battleground Senate states is similar to the national picture.
Only 33% of voters say the country is going in the right direction, and 61% say the country is pretty seriously off on the wrong track. Among Independents, only 21% say right direction, while 68% say wrong track.

President Obama has a polarized 47% approve/50% disapprove job rating. By intensity,28% strongly approve, and 41% strongly disapprove. Independents are slightly more negative – 42% approve/50% disapprove.

3. There is a gale force wind blowing against the four Democratic incumbents running in these battleground states.
Respondents were asked to rate the job their Senator (specifically named) is doing and whether he/she deserves re-election, the results don’t look positive for those four incumbents. Only 42% approve and 44% disapprove of their incumbent Senator. And,on the re-elect/new person question, just 34% would vote to re-elect their incumbent Senator, while 55% prefer a new person.(The four incumbents are Blanche Lincoln, Michael Bennet, Harry Reid, and Patty Murray. Each were named on those two questions in the interviews done in their states.)

4. There is a massive fight brewing on the economy.
We split sampled two questions about the economy, underscoring that the messaging on the economy is crucial to the perspective voters take. The

first question was:
53% President Obama’s economic policies have run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession or slow the record pace of job losses.
...or...
43% President Obama’s economic policies helped avert an even worse crisis, and are laying the foundation for our eventual economic recovery.

The second question was:
33% President Obama is more responsible for the problems with the economy.
...or...
52% Former President Bush is more responsible for the problems with the economy.

Thus, Democrats will want the fight to focus on former President Bush, while Republicans will want the campaign message about the economy to focus on the impact and result of President Obama’s policies.

5. Republicans win four of the main policy fights of the campaign – jobs/economy, health care, Wall Street, and the perspective of the last two years.
These message fights were the same as tested on the bi-partisan NPR survey in June. The Republican messages were developed by Glen Bolger, and the Democratic messages were written by Stan Greenberg back in June (Stan Greenberg IS NOT AWARE OF this adaptation of the earlier project). Rather than change the messaging on one side or the other, for comparison with that project we left the wording the same. The advantage for the GOP was not as sizable on all of the messages as it was in the House Battleground poll, but it was substantial nonetheless:

* The Republican message on jobs and the economy won by eight points, 52%-
44%. In the eight Democratic-held seats (incumbent plus open), the GOPer won 51%-46%.

* Health care was the closest fight, a 51%-46% GOP win. It was a tie in the eight Democratic seats (49% each).

* On financial reform, the GOP message won 52%-44%, and 51%-45% in the eight Democratic seats.

* The biggest GOP win came on the overall message fight by a 54%-42% margin
(same result in just the eight Democratic held seats). Thus, the broader the narrative, the more difficult it is for the Democrats.

The Bottom Line

Voters in the 13 Battleground Senate seats – five held by Republicans, eight by Democrats – want to vote for Republicans. Voters in the four seats held by Democratic incumbents are unhappy with those incumbents and are in a mood for change. Delving into the survey, the crosstab data shows even more of an opportunity for Republicans to make major gains in these U.S. Senate seats than even the positive topline data indicates.
Independents are breaking heavily to the Republican candidates, and high interest voters provide significantly more support to the Republican candidates than the electorate overall.
Democrats in these Battleground Senate races are not only facing an enthusiasm gap, they are also facing a message gap. It is possible, albeit unlikely, that they can make up for with money what they are losing on turnout interest and on message. But, as recent elections have once
again shown, when voters are unhappy with the party running Washington, problems of message and turnout trump financial advantages. While some of the Democratic candidates in these thirteen Battleground Senate states may survive, given the way the electorate is moving against them, most of them will not.

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