Rasmussen: Giannoulias 43, Kirk 41

Wednesday, July 28, 2010 The Illinois Senate race remains very close.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Illinois finds Democrat Alexi Giannoulias with 43% support to Republican Mark Kirk’s 41%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided.

Both men have been battling ethics questions for weeks. Thirty-one percent (31%) of Illinois voters now rate Giannoulias as less ethical than most politicians, and 21% say the same of Kirk.

Voters tend to grade politicians on a curve and most Illinois voters still say both men are at least as ethical as most politicians. For Giannoulias, 52% hold that view including eight percent (8%) who say the Democrat is more ethical than most of his political peers.

For Kirk, the numbers are only slightly better. Sixty percent (60%) say his ethics are at least as good as most politicians while 10% view him as more ethical.

Earlier this month, Giannoulias, the state’s current treasurer, led Kirk, a U.S. congressman, 40% to 39%.

The slight uptick in Kirk’s numbers appears to signal an end to a downward trend for the Republican candidate. For Giannoulias, it’s the fifth straight single point increase in support.

In six previous surveys back to February, Giannoulias has earned 37% to 44% of the vote. Kirk’s support in those same surveys has ranged from 39% to 46%.

Illinois remains one of seven Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 26, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters in the state view Kirk as a conservative, but 21% say he’s a moderate.

By comparison, 51% think Giannoulias is a liberal, while 24% characterize him as a moderate.

Kirk carries 74% of conservative voters in the state, while 79% of liberals support Giannoulias. Moderates favor the Democrat by a 47% to 35% margin.

Forty-four percent (44%) say Kirk’s views are in the mainstream, but 30% say they are extreme. Forty-two percent (42%) view Giannoulias in the mainstream, while 33% say he’s extreme.

Seven percent (7%) of Illinois voters hold a Very Favorable opinion of Giannoulias, while 25% view him Very Unfavorably.

Kirk is viewed Very Favorably by 10% and Very Unfavorably by 14%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Kirk holds a modest lead among male voters, and Giannoulias has a similar lead among women. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer the Republican by nearly 20 points.

Kirk has a wide fundraising lead on Giannoulias, and President Obama is scheduled to return to his home state next month for a Giannoulias fundraiser.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters in the state approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 43% disapprove. This level of support has held steady in recent months and is well above Obama’s approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

For context, former Governor Rod Blagojevich is currently on trial in Chicago on federal corruption charges, and just after his arrest in December 2008, 59% of Illinois voters rated him as less ethical than most politicians. Thirty-one percent (31%) said his ethics were about the same as his peers.